Today, the Bureau of Labor Stats released its national unemployment rate figures, and for the first time in 15 months, the rate is lower than the previous month. In May, it was 9.4%; in June, 9.5%, and now in July, it's back to 9.4%. It isn't much, but since unemployment generally only begins to rally at the end of a recession, it bodes well.
The graph above shows the unemployment rate superimposed over recession periods, which are shown as gray bars. In every case, the unemployment rate did not turn down until the end of the recession. Sometimes it continued upward, but it never turned down.
Thought this might be of interest.
The Rev