an interesting time to be alive

[v3d4]

The growth of complexity eventually becomes self-limiting, and leads to a wide spread "general systems collapse".

this is what i think about the singularity, that machines' limitations are already built in by nature
but im open to the possibility that superintelligent machines are the next step in evolution

[tedkennedy]

Originally Posted by airfalcon

I would say 100 years ago they were saying its a very interesting time to be alive. Maybe , maybe not. I think its something that can be asked at any time and get a positive answer because we really dont know whats around the corner.

good point, do you think in the future people will look back at us and see us as the idiots the people before us were.

people like to think they have a good grasp on things when they really dont.

[xMSx]

Originally Posted by espiex

Technological singularity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are a few interesting definitions of this, but an intriguing one is the idea that an artificial intelligence emerges which can improve its own design, then does so recursively leading to an explosion of AI. Where this would leave us meat tubes is another question...

Yes i was actually looking at that wiki before i post . I should hope that our technology never becomes self-aware, even though that is the next logical step.
Bummer.

[The Rev]

Originally Posted by tedkennedy

realistically, what do you expect the future to be like? in 10 years, in 20 years, in 50 years, in 100 years, etc...

10 Years: The first practical nanotechnology applications begin to emerge. Nuclear terrorism has probably occured by this point, as well.

20 Years: Life expectancy has increased to beyond 100 years for the average person in an industrialized nation. Gasoline is $50 a gallon.

50 Years: Nanotech is a regular part of our everyday lives. Scarcity is a thing of the past. There is no more hunger or poverty except in countries with the most corrupt of governments. Dick Cheney, while mostly bionic, celebrates his 116th birthday with the comment, "I feel better than ever!"

100 Years: The world is a vast wasteland of carbon ash and disassociated elements. Everyone and everything that was living is now dead. The biosphere is gone. Dick Cheney still claims to feel "better than ever!"



The Rev

[xMSx]

^Ah so as longevity increases, the quality of life diminishes...except for Dick Cheney

[OldMan&TheWeed]

I had prepared a piece to post here on the topic of climate change and world wide grain production.

Then I read The Rev's post.

He's a hard act to follow.

[OldMan&TheWeed]

In the next thirty years the world's population is projected to grow by two billion while grain production is expected to fall by 15% due to climate change. Most fisheries are expected to collapse due to climate change and overfishing. At the same time oil will become scarcer and more expensive to extract. Control over the last of the viable oil fields will lead to war.

Is this our predestined future?

Had Paul Ehrlich's 1968 predictions in "The Population Bomb" been right, we would now be stumbling around in a sea of smog killing one another for the few scraps of food we could find. Yet thanks to the "Green Revolution" and cheep oil even the worst off countries such as India and China have not starved. While I believe that we'd all be better off with level population growth, We seem to be alright where we are right now.

Will we be able to dodge the bullet a second time? I am skeptical.

Our leaders think only short term. They will do ANYTHING to curb rising fuel prices, instead of letting the free market correct the problem through higher prices. Go to war, suspend the federal gasoline tax, even turn our food crops into fuel - anything to prevent high oil prices from slowing the economy.

Ironically the last of the solutions to high fuel prices is also touted as fighting global warming - using crops to produce clean-burning bio-fuels such as ethanol - accentuates any harvest shortfalls because so much corn, sugar, and soybeans is now being diverted from the dinner plate to the gas tank. Since we are the world's bread basket, if we start losing wheat production and corn production, it's going to affect the entire world. It has been projected that by 2025 the US will cease to be a food exporter, due primarily to rising domestic demand, topsoil loss, food production inefficiencies, and shortages of costly petroleum used in agriculture—to say nothing of feared climate change problems. Less food for export will be a great fiscal problem for the US, which relies heavily on agricultural exports, but it will spell catastrophe for many other hungry people in other parts of the world.

It may have already begun. World wide food prices have climbed 40% in the last 12 months.

We in the US and Canada have been insulated from this to a degree, but it can not last. We will adjust easier than people in other less affluent countries. Countries that depend on the US grain surplus for survival. People around the world will grow to hate more us because we will have enough to eat while their people (the educated class along with the poor) starve. This resentment will manifest itself in war and terrorism - the real kind.



I sucks to be young.

[OldMan&TheWeed]

The brownie just kicked in, and this just came to me:

There are two extremes to the views on our energy and food situation. The cornucopians, say not to worry - technology will come to the rescue, energy alternatives will take over as soon as the price is right.

Meanwhile, the Prophets of Doom, predict the collapse of industrial civilization and human population via environmental degradation, warfare, disease, and famine. Or at best they predict a return to a primitive 19th century style of existence with far fewer people on the planet. I predict tough going, but there are also ways for us to scrape through a few more decades until more sustainable technology can be developed and scaled up. The kind of civilization that can be sustained over the long haul is still an open question.

Short term fixes include high mileage small cars that get 90 miles per gallon, coal fired electrical power plants, wind turbines, and nuclear power plants. Also coal gasification could be revived to produce aviation and diesel fuel.

On the one hand environmentalists alarmed by global warming can hardly wait for high oil prices in order to cut back on green house gases. On the other hand, the use coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels, is even more alarming. We could pump the carbon dioxide waste underground, but as for now it mostly goes into the atmosphere.

However unpalatable some of these fixes may seem to some of us, I believe this is where our future will likely lie, based on current politics and economics.

[matthewmunari]

Originally Posted by tedkennedy

think about our current timeperiod in human society.

the information that is available to us. the technology. the problems that face us, and the ability we have to solve them.

is it a good time to be alive or bad?

realistically, what do you expect the future to be like? in 10 years, in 20 years, in 50 years, in 100 years, etc...

I believe that we're gonna drive ourselves into the ground w/ technology...we have survived (on record) for 3,000 years b.c., if I'm not mistaken, and it was only until VERY RECENTLY have we had the technology we have today. I mean, humans had thousands of years to think cognitively, and only until the 1900's did we make any sort of technological advances. The Mayan calendar runs out 12/21/12, which is highly co-incidental it's the end of the winter solstice, I think we will destroy ourselves if we're not careful, (we all know the myth of Atlantis), said to have imploded 10-12,000 years ago. Hidden in the right front paw of the Sphinx, the renowned (and possibly the only true modern day prophet) psychic said that they would find records of Atlantis there. The Egyptian gov't let a team go probing with sonar, and it did seem like the paw was hollow, but the Govt. wouldn't condone any further research. i.e. excavation. And he also predicted Atlantis would be found in 1968-69..In 68', sky-satellites showed what appeared to be a human made structure under the waters in the Bahamas (Bimini Road).We are headed for the same fate as the Atlanteans, if we don't protect ourselves from religous extremsists, we are headed for the same fate... Coasttocoastam.com is a great radio program with guests like Roger Lear (inventer of the Lear jet), Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist with off the wall theories on space/time, if we take care of our fellow brothers and sisters, the skys the limit. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case...We all die, and we are energy... you cannot destroy energy, just transfer it into different objects....souls are energy, when you die, you automatically lose 12 grams of weight, that 12 grams containing all that was you in human form...We are human, so we tend to humanize things..like I said, you can't explain the rules of tennis to a dog, but he runs after it and plays with it, but doesn't have the tools necessary to do anything but mundane tasks with it.. it can't understand the rules, this applies to us because like the dog playing with the ball, we don't have the necessary tools needed to interpret the afterlife..until we get there, then a whole new universe is given to us. Perhaps 200 billion light years away, there's the next phase of our existance..Remember you cannot destroy energy, which is all we are...matthew munari

[Waves]

Originally Posted by matthewmunari

I believe that we're gonna drive ourselves into the ground w/ technology...we have survived (on record) for 3,000 years b.c., if I'm not mistaken, and it was only until VERY RECENTLY have we had the technology we have today. I mean, humans had thousands of years to think cognitively, and only until the 1900's did we make any sort of technological advances. The Mayan calendar runs out 12/21/12, which is highly co-incidental it's the end of the winter solstice, I think we will destroy ourselves if we're not careful, (we all know the myth of Atlantis), said to have imploded 10-12,000 years ago. Hidden in the right front paw of the Sphinx, the renowned (and possibly the only true modern day prophet) psychic said that they would find records of Atlantis there. The Egyptian gov't let a team go probing with sonar, and it did seem like the paw was hollow, but the Govt. wouldn't condone any further research. i.e. excavation. And he also predicted Atlantis would be found in 1968-69..In 68', sky-satellites showed what appeared to be a human made structure under the waters in the Bahamas (Bimini Road).We are headed for the same fate as the Atlanteans, if we don't protect ourselves from religous extremsists, we are headed for the same fate... Coasttocoastam.com is a great radio program with guests like Roger Lear (inventer of the Lear jet), Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist with off the wall theories on space/time, if we take care of our fellow brothers and sisters, the skys the limit. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case...We all die, and we are energy... you cannot destroy energy, just transfer it into different objects....souls are energy, when you die, you automatically lose 12 grams of weight, that 12 grams containing all that was you in human form...We are human, so we tend to humanize things..like I said, you can't explain the rules of tennis to a dog, but he runs after it and plays with it, but doesn't have the tools necessary to do anything but mundane tasks with it.. it can't understand the rules, this applies to us because like the dog playing with the ball, we don't have the necessary tools needed to interpret the afterlife..until we get there, then a whole new universe is given to us. Perhaps 200 billion light years away, there's the next phase of our existance..Remember you can destroy energy, which is all we are...matthew munari

no offense but this barely makes sense

do you really think we've only been around for 3000 years?

[matthewmunari]

the old testament took place?

[Waves]

we could debate whether it took place at all.

[tedkennedy]

Originally Posted by matthewmunari

I believe that we're gonna drive ourselves into the ground w/ technology...we have survived (on record) for 3,000 years b.c., if I'm not mistaken, and it was only until VERY RECENTLY have we had the technology we have today. I mean, humans had thousands of years to think cognitively, and only until the 1900's did we make any sort of technological advances. The Mayan calendar runs out 12/21/12, which is highly co-incidental it's the end of the winter solstice, I think we will destroy ourselves if we're not careful, (we all know the myth of Atlantis), said to have imploded 10-12,000 years ago. Hidden in the right front paw of the Sphinx, the renowned (and possibly the only true modern day prophet) psychic said that they would find records of Atlantis there. The Egyptian gov't let a team go probing with sonar, and it did seem like the paw was hollow, but the Govt. wouldn't condone any further research. i.e. excavation. And he also predicted Atlantis would be found in 1968-69..In 68', sky-satellites showed what appeared to be a human made structure under the waters in the Bahamas (Bimini Road).We are headed for the same fate as the Atlanteans, if we don't protect ourselves from religous extremsists, we are headed for the same fate... Coasttocoastam.com is a great radio program with guests like Roger Lear (inventer of the Lear jet), Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist with off the wall theories on space/time, if we take care of our fellow brothers and sisters, the skys the limit. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case...We all die, and we are energy... you cannot destroy energy, just transfer it into different objects....souls are energy, when you die, you automatically lose 12 grams of weight, that 12 grams containing all that was you in human form...We are human, so we tend to humanize things..like I said, you can't explain the rules of tennis to a dog, but he runs after it and plays with it, but doesn't have the tools necessary to do anything but mundane tasks with it.. it can't understand the rules, this applies to us because like the dog playing with the ball, we don't have the necessary tools needed to interpret the afterlife..until we get there, then a whole new universe is given to us. Perhaps 200 billion light years away, there's the next phase of our existance..Remember you can destroy energy, which is all we are...matthew munari

i basically agree. good post, but try breaking it up into paragraphs to seperate your different ideas.

pertaining to the environment, there are two schools of thought. one school of thought suggests being an "environmentalis t" and respecting and preventing any problems before they might occur. the other school of thought believes that any problem man creates he can inevitably solve with our combined knowledge and rapid level of innovation. currently humans think they can act on the second school of thought, however this is proving that it is not working.

the reason is that in reality, the beurocracy of the government and vastly stupid and ignorant religious people of our nation severely hinders americas ( and the worlds) ability to change for the better. the technology and ability to develop new technologies is already there but the government is not investing the neccesary resources meanwhile dickfuck oil companies and strip mines recieve government subsidies and tax breaks. and this is why i think we are fucked.

smaller countries such as those in europe have the right idea and are already decades ahead of us in the use of green-friend technology and habits. its countries like the US and China that are royally fucked, because for such a huge country, a change in policy is a huge undertaking. not to mention both governments are notorious for dickfuckery.

[Waves]

I mean, humans had thousands of years to think cognitively, and only until the 1900's did we make any sort of technological advances.

I also find this hilarious. So since we've had the same cognitive abilities for thousands of years that means that we should also have the same technology? i dont understand.

[JcP]

you know, population is always something that's there, but overlooked.

In all honesty, I think overpopulation is what's going to lead this world into the shitter moreso than anything else. Almost all the problems we see are a result of overpopulation...

pollution, destruction of the rainforest, super-diseases, etc.

Maybe the solution to humanity's ills is to ban all births for a generation. Like...no one has any babies for 20 years or something.

maybe us queers aren't as irrelevant and "wrong" as some people think.

[matthewmunari]

Originally Posted by Waves

no offense but this barely makes sense

do you really think we've only been around for 3000 years?

Maybe I can put it a more concise form.

[Waves]

i just would like some clarification on whether or not you believe we've only been on this planet 3000 years. and if so, how did we come to get here?