U.N.'Don't arrest Sudan Prez & war crimes cuase he might hurt people' besides 300,000

[ProfessorMurder]

'This prosecution will endanger the people (and the OIL) we wish to defend, in
Sudan'President Bashir is about to be accused of war crimes in Darfur by the
International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor. But going after him is a
mistake, argue Julie Flint and Alex de Waal

Julie Flint and Alex de Waal The Observer, Sunday July 13, 2008

Article history

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo,
is set to accuse President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan of war crimes tomorrow.

Bashir will be the first serving head of state - and the first Muslim leader - to
face prosecution by the ICC. In his 19 years in power, Bashir has presided
over a regime marked by recurrent massacre and savage repression. His ruling
security clique is weak but united by fear of what may happen if it loses
power. The country's democratic forces are fragmented, and after decades of
struggle and confrontation have realised that the only way out of their crisis
is a compromise power-sharing deal.

Ocampo's announcement tomorrow will be the biggest shot yet. But once fired
it will be a blow to impunity only if Bashir surrenders, which is impossible; is
arrested, which is difficult; or if the regime crumbles, which is unlikely given
the weakness of the political opposition and the dismemberment of Sudan's
once vibrant civil society. If Bashir lives to fight another day, unrepentant
and unreformed, indicting him will be a blow for impunity. Tomorrow, UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon's dream - that 'justice and peace are
indivisible' - will turn into a nightmare. It will be tested to destruction -
possibly the destruction of Sudan itself. The immediate dangers are easy to
foresee. The very people the ICC seeks to defend - the survivors of the
Darfur war - are the most vulnerable to whatever steps the regime takes in
its fightback.

The chief prosecutor's timing could not be worse. There has been more
movement on the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which
provides a blueprint for the democratisation of Sudan, in the past two months
than in the past three and a half years; a deal has been signed to end a
dispute over the flashpoint oil-rich region of Abyei; and an election law has
been passed.