Cycling '09 : TDF Route Announced, Lance Returns, CERA Positives & the New Era

[sput·nik]

The Tour at the end of last summer was a pretty wild watch, full of ups & downs sometimes depending on who you were a fan of. But the drama (which really begun at the Giro, honestly) didn't stop in Paris. The leadup to the Olympic Games was scarred in a way most fans & spectators weren't really keen on, all due to the emergence of the CERA/EPO urine test during the tour.

But what we didn't find out till later was that even amidst the positive controls at the tour, there was still reason for hope in the doping daily news. Turns out there were a couple prominent folks who were, possibly even to their own amazement, still beating the urine screens day after day of (targeted!) testing.

Beijing passed with only a single positive for EPO (a spanish female cyclist) but all the while, in the cycling world the talk was of a newly developed bloodtest for CERA that could detect much smaller traces and would be applied to stored samples from the tour in over a dozen riders' cases where there had been suspicious results.

Contador and Leipheimer dominated the Vuelta while a cloud lingered over the entire CSC team & other rumored riders. Lance comeback rumors began circulating after his impressive 2nd in the Leadville 100 MTB race. Promptly, he confirms the comeback news and the speculation about he and Contador battling for Astana team leadership may or may not contribute to dominating back-to-back mountaintop stage victories in the highest Spanish peaks for 'Bertie coinciding with the announcement

News breaks of more confirmed CERA positives from the Tour blood samples.. first it is Michael Schumacher who won both timetrials, and later in the same day the surprise accomplishments of moutainking Bernard Kohl are defiled. Left in the cold are the new teams who just signed them away from the defunct Gerolsteiner.. Quickstep drops Schumie like a brick and Silence-Lotto is forced to cancel their contract with Kohl, likely to the dismay of Evans (though they did get Dekker from Rabobank which should please him.) Finally Piepoli's guilt is confirmed as well, though this is an afterthought by this point. Ultimately the tests are concluded without incriminating anyone from CSC, although the words continue that values are suspicious and that a test for blood transfusions is on the immediate horizon.

We're now at the beginning of October, and WADA is screaming at the IOC about the EPO blood test and new cyclists found guilty, and so we get an announcement that the 500+ blood screens (all athletes) from Beijing are to be retroactively tested with the new technology. Far as I can tell, no word on that since..

So we've got Lance promising to spread the word about the risks and treatment options of cancer worldwide on his bike, part of a dominating team which as a result finds itself in complete turmoil Also, we get news that Vino wants to un-retire after serving his (1 year, hah) ban for blood doping at the 07 tour, and seems to think that the Astana folks owe him a roster spot.
So Lance at first responded to the Bertie victory in Spain by concluding that he'd, for the first time ever, ride the Giro as his primary target of the year while Contador could take back his pride in France. But that calm doesn't last long as the '09 Tour presentation made it very clear it will be a race designed for domination by a strong team. So now he and Johan are doing press moments emphasizing that French officials need to show respect to Lance before he will feel comfortable riding there again, but seemingly hinting that the golden boy is having difficulty imagining himself skipping Paris.

About the route? The team time trial is going to be back this year.. it is only around 40km but they have removed the limitations on time gains that kept it from being such a watershed stage in the last few years it was included. The prologue is back this year too, but is a 15km affair with a dragging uphill grade the whole way that will draw out much more than just a few seconds between the leaders.

The mountain stages are fairly tame with no back to back killers and only 3 true summit finishes. They have also rotated the final time trial earlier into the last week, before the Alps, so instead of being the final deciding factor, the specialists will have to take time and then try to hang on through the mountains. The most interesting result of this is that we get to see a Mt. Ventoux summit finish on the day before Paris. Given the lack of ITT miles and general softness of the climbing schedule, we should see a really tight race all the way & it should all still be up for grabs at that point. The only real question is just how the Astana politics will pan out, as they will almost certainly dominate the team TT and as a result, ultimately control the entire tour.


Other team shakeups? Sastre leaves CSC to head up the new Cervelo Test Team along with names like Hushovd and Simon Gerrans. CSC is left with the Schlecks but also re-sign Cancellara through 2010. Frank is embroiled in controversy over a E7000 payment he dropped on Fuentes a few years back, but ultimately the Luxembourg federation seems uninterested in going after him. As mentioned earlier, Silence signed Thomas Dekker away from Rabo & also Kohl to shore up their line of up&coming talent and to support Cadel, but now Kohl is gone and though he recently denied it, there are still rumors of Popovych leaving the sport. Basso is back with Liquigas though they've said he won't start the 09 Tour, but more likely go to Italy.


The reaction to Lance is pretty volatile across the board, but the road will be interesting to watch next year as the fallout from this one settles & the sport tries again to claim itself fresh and anew. If anything, around here I'm mostly just hoping it means we get to see the Giro on TV

More as it comes...

Cheers.

[SpankyMcLankey]

*lowers head into hands*

You aren't a cyclist are you?

Dude I didn't even read your shit, but did you know Lance says he's doing it to raise cancer awareness blah blah.

He's not even going to win. There's 50 cyclists out there that could beat the shit out of him even if he started doping. Not really, but there is stronger/better out there today. I would have gone to the leadville race if I had known about it.

[Cerebro]

I like the route of the tour this year, interesting to the end.
team TT should be interesting.
Last I saw Ricco looked alright.

[sput·nik]

Trab don't be foolish. No joke, I was racing & watching the tour since before you were born, kiddo... I'm stoked if we have another cycling fan on the boards, but if you're going to make stupid assuming remarks without having read the entire post, do us a favor and fuck off.

To actually respond to your thoughts.. Armstrong is absolutely able to win, assuming Astana dominates the TTT and that Lance beats Alberto in the prologue & ITT. In a sense, Johan would have no choice but to demand the team support Lance through the mountains, and if you are telling me that you think anyone else will be able to stick with Bertie & Levi doing pacemaking up the Colombiere & Ventoux you're nuts. If Lance ends up going to France and Levi has another good year, fact is everyone else is in for a whole lot of trouble from Astana. There really just aren't the severe mountains or tough TT miles for someone without a strong team backing to win or compete with 2 or 3 superdomestiques day after day.

This highlights an important & smart detail.. I think the tour route is setup to really foster overall team strength versus dramatic individual efforts. What this should encourage is the need for teams to build a very strong group of riders to do well in the TTT and moreso to control the race day after day. You don't have any of those days where someone can light up the group for more than a minute or two, with the exception of the climb to Ventoux and given how gentle the stage leading up to it is, it should only prove so tough because it is coming at the end of 3 weeks.

In effect it should minimize the effects of an individual doping, unless of course are one to assume that their are in fact still team doping programs going

[SpankyMcLankey]

holy shit mate. I had no idea.

If you're srs, I apologize I didn't know that. Just thought maybe you were another fatty sitting on the couch with a nice bicycle in the garage, watching the tour. you know.

Check my bike out in SSD's thread.

I'm sure Lance has the ability, but I don't think he's got it in 'em. I just don't know why I have that feeling. He's almost "burnt out" in my mind. I would love to see him fulfill his dream, but I just have some confidence in some other places. I can't wait to find out.

[Cerebro]

It's big business; they wont put their money behind some has-been for nostalgia's sake.

[sput·nik]

I'm sure Lance has the ability, but I don't think he's got it in 'em.

and don't get confused by what I'm saying.. Lance is not going to be the strongest rider in the pack.

but because he rides for such a strong team and can time trial well, he may reasonably still be in a position to steal the show. add Levi's strength in TTing and it's conceivable that they could battle for 1-2-3 on the fucking podium if you really want to talk about a fullblown nightmare ego-juggling act for Johan.
Anyways, like I initially said I am mostly hoping Lance confirms that he will heavily focus on the Giro so that it gets more stateside coverage and potentially some contracts for TV in the coming years.
I also feel like Bertie deserves to lead Astana in the TdF and have his shot at taking back his throne. Winning in Spain & Italy this year is ridiculous and I just hope the Kazakhs are willing to continue to show him more loyalty than Bruyneel has.


As a fan of the ballsy climbers, I like little Andy.. but I'll be a little harder pressed to root for the CSC boys this year given that Carlos has left the team. No question though, I was beyond impressed by the teamwork they put in last year. The Schleck/Fuentes thing, for me, is a nonissue as there are others still in the pack who were more heavily implicated. If you want to go back more than a year or two in cycling and start trying to cherrypick names, that would seem a real sham.

You live in CO, Spanky? Do you ride offroad ever? Mostly ride just around town or do you get rural and into the hills?

[sput·nik]

March '09, Lance states he plans to peak for day 1 of the TdF, essentially guaranteeing a head-to-head with Berto for team leadership in the opening 15km time-trial.

Who would have guessed? ...

Can Alberto attack him if he's wearing yellow? Set the pace just a bit high perhaps? To see him fling the radio out of his helmet, then the cameras cut to a viciously ranting Johan in the team ride...


I am excited/disturbed by the possibilities. They ride together in Castilla y Leon soon, for the first time.

[Cerebro]

lots of scenarios to be played out
it could end up looking like csc last year were the team gives both riders a go at different times in the tour and see were it ends up leading to Paris.
i cant see Lance defeating Conti, myself.

[sput·nik]

if it were anyone else.. or even if the DS was anyone else, then we could go right down that road of thinking without a thought.

but bro you've got to know that LA is not interested in riding for someone else in Paris... if he takes that opening TT victory (though the course truly favors Contador) he is going to demand to be treated & protected like a leader, and Johan would be right there behind him. If everything goes as planned, Astana will have 1-2-3 after the Team-TT wraps up the first week. Assuming he can drag a wheel up the few pesky climbs that they've scattered across the route this year, he could surely win just based on gains picked up in the ITTs.

A scenario of "two team leaders" isn't unheard of, but to look at the psychological warfare that Lance has taken up in the past week (Twittering, his nice L'Equipe interview) and even Johan getting in on the "critiquing" of Bertie's floundering of the Paris-Nice lead...

sketchy. Alberto just needs to win that TT and send the Texan back to the retirement home for good..

[sput·nik]

in other news...

Valverde's fate hangs in the balance... CONI has him by the balls, but the Spanish courts are still holding on to his bib shorts. He's probably now wishing he had gotten his ban over with when Basso did. poor piti.

Who else is going to challenge for GC this year? VandeVelde says he is feeling his best ever, and Garmin should do plenty well in the team event. The Schlecks will have a few climbs to put in work, but the TT miles look to work strongly against them. Sastre doesn't seem like he will have enough opportunities to do damage either. Can Menchov finally have his year come together in France?


I'd love to see it stay close until Mt. Ventoux on the penultimate day.. the Astana drama will be fun to watch unfold, but if the race is going to be decided by individual efforts on the quiet flat roads instead of summit-top finishes, we're all better off focusing more attention on what looks to be an amazing 100th anniversary of the Giro.
We don't get to watch that one here, but thanks to Demonoid I'll be watching proper Eurosport coverage of all the big days in Italy and France

[Cerebro]

so you can watch coverage on the net? how far away is the Giro?
i still think about that corner last year where Menchov slipped and fell as he was going to go after Sastre, i think he could have done it, he might even have taken Cadel with him, but i think he had more in him than Cadel or Sastre at that stage.
little things, in big races.

[farmergiles]

I find it probable that Lance would get the top spot in the team- it`s all about advertising- how many riders will lead a stage mid way with no hopes of winning the stage just to get the cameras on their jersey? Lance is gonna pull TV coverage no matter what.
Also- with a strong team behind him it wouldn`t totally surprise me if he won it again.

[Cerebro]

the coverage issue is why i'm thinking they may have the two leaders, but i know nothing.

[sput·nik]

Milan Sanremo in just a few more hours!

the Spring classics season truly begins..

C - there are a lot of different websites that offer decent livecasts, although typically towards the crucial points in a race/stage you will see webtraffic increases that lead to sketchy viewing so it can be a real bummer right when the viewing gets good, if that makes sense. re: Demonoid, its just a torrent site that happens to have a really active (albeit small) following of pro cycling fans so there are dependably excellent quality uploads of all the Eurosport coverage of races that appear immediately after all the big spring classics & various stage races throughout the year. Never was able to find anything similiar anywhere, until joining Dmnd. not the same as watching live in a pub I suppose, but it works for the lot of us just home on the couch to watch it the next day.




you can see how the two little climbs at the end can end up spoiling the fun for a lot of the big sprinters, who are probably 2-4kg heavier now than they will be in the summer months. If they can't stick near the front over the top of the Poggio, they'll likely not find the position in the final group to take the win. Cancellara stole the show last year with a solo break, but otherwise it is reliably a sprinters' affair.. an early annual test of fitness.

I hear the odds are on Boonen, they think Cav is still a little young for a sprint after almost 300km. To me Liquigas (Basso, Bennati, Pellizotti) looks real strong for a chance.
Let me know if you want a link to try to catch some of it today.. I don't even know what hour it'll be wrapping up yet. Otherwise we get Paris Roubaix and more in just a couple weeks.. the season really cranks up from here.. Giro and Dauphine in June heading into July...

[sput·nik]

winding around the final turns headed towards a bunch sprint...
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right around 0:50, watch how Haussler (in black, coming up the side) appears as if he is leading out Hushovd (his teammate, white helmets) but then leaps away from the entire group,,,

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Cav is the only one even close enough to try to put up a chase...
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such a ballsy move from haussler.. pure class from Cav to chase him down on the line! fuck the skeptics, eh? awesome finish.

[Cerebro]

i couldn't believe how haussler gave cav such a good run at the end, it was like he was leading him out, and slingshot him right at the end, shame thor couldn't catch his tail.
Cav is something though.

[sput·nik]

looked like the whole pack was pretty unorganized.. but still, haussler would have needed an insane burst of speed to leap off the front when the whole group is doing 60+ k/h. you could see him just dying trying to hold it to the line
Cav showing that he's not just the fastest, but that he's learning to be in the right position even without an optimal leadout... everyone else is in for a tough season I'd say. Considering the lack of tough climbs on this years tour, he'll have immense pressure to take the green all the way to Paris. I don't doubt he'll bring the goods.



Oh yeah, and on the sidebar.. L.A. crashed this morning on the first stage of Castilla - Leon. fractured right collarbone, out for 6 weeks.. likely back in time to ride a week or two in the Giro in prep for the tour. (and have a new baby in there somewhere too, quite the summer for him.)
Lucky guy if you ask me, got to save himself from being humiliated in the TT and two summit finishes this week vs. Conto

[Cerebro]

haussler peeling off though, i just looked weird, like he couldn't help himself from being the lead-out guy, like he was owned, haha.
how good is conti's tt? i remember it as being much faster than anticipated in France a coupla years back, but, how good is it?
i hope lance stays home. save all this anxiety.

[sput·nik]

the muur decided it once again..

unless you want to decipher the commentary, play these in succession & mute the cycling clip for a reasonable little buildup





hopefully it isn't confusing.. think it is nuyens from rabo leading the larger chase group in some early footage, but eventually the camera cuts back to the lead group of 4. Stijn Devolder (Quickstep, white) opens the initial little gap and the chase looks tight for a moment.. but lol 2:15-2:20 he is just on another planet. Quinziato (liqui, yellow) looked strong the whole race, but he just goes to pieces on that final pitch. They never saw him again & he got to finish solo, in style. Nicks the show from his teammate and countryman Boonen for the 2nd year in a row..