Roach

Bureau of Labor Statistics web site crashes while posting new jobs report.

This "job report" originally posted no change in rate, then crashes, then at 9:30 reopens and mysteriously 144,000 new jobs have created in july.
(better that predicted)

Understand that a bad jobs report usually holds the market to lower gains and usually losses for several weeks after reporting a higher rate/no change.

And pennsylvania already had reported unemployment rate increase of 9.3, up in july from 9.1 in june.

I'm calling bullshit on those new report numbers being valid .



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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Bureau of Labor Statistics website crashed Friday morning, and a highly anticipated monthly report on payrolls and the unemployment rate was not available online for about an hour.

The site was down for at least half an hour after the payroll report was released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The site came back on but failed to update and only old reports could be accessed.

The BLS website updated the payroll report, which proved a surprising bright spot, at about 9:30 a.m.

"The reason the website was down is that the service was overwhelmed by the number of inquires," said BLS spokeswoman Stacey Standish. "We're working to make sure this doesn't happen in the future. There was a lot of interest in the report."

The report was the subject of intense investor focus, partly because of the ongoing concern about the job market, and also because it followed a bloody day on Wall Street.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 512 points, the ninth-steepest drop in its history, fueled by fears about the global economy.

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deadhead94

Books probably don't taste very good.

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Roach

particularly when states base their unemployment payouts on them.

and federal extensions to states are based on them.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/...k/?iid=Popular


FORTUNE -- Phew! After the spate of bad economic data that propelled fears that the U.S. could soon slip back into an economic recession, today's monthly report on the state of the jobs market has given us a sign – albeit a modest one – that things might not be as bad as we thought.

The unemployment rate in July fell slightly to 9.1% from 9.2% the previous month as the economy added 117,000 jobs. This is the largest amount of jobs added in a month since April. And far more than the 18,000 net new jobs originally reported in June.

Certainly this makes it less likely that the U.S. could fall back into a recession soon, at least according to Goldman Sachs (GS). The investment bank has come up with an interesting rule of thumb on recessions. It estimates that if the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises by more than three-tenths of a percentage point, the economy has either entered a recession already or will do so within six months.

Prior to July's report, the three-month average unemployment rate was 9.07%, up from 8.9% in April. If July's rate had increased to 9.3% and stayed there in August, it would have met Goldman's threshold.
But we can only read so much into today's monthly report. After weeks of bad economic news that on Thursday culminated in the stock market's worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, it's easy to inflate any good news. The market seemed to realize that -- after jumping at the opening bell on Friday, stocks quickly reversed course.

The unemployment rate might have fallen slightly but that's mostly because the number of people actively looking for jobs fell back – signaling that perhaps workers are feeling less confident about entering the job market. In July, labor participation fell by 193,000.

What's more, though the economy added 117,000 jobs, it falls short of the 150,000 jobs a month needed just to keep up with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from trending higher. And it would take at least twice that many to rapidly reduce unemployment.

"The bigger picture, then, is that two years after the recession ended (for some people) the labor market has not really recovered at all, and may even have gone backwards," writes economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "Even though immediate recession fears may fade a little on the back of this report, the key point is that he economy is still struggling and will continue to do so next year too."

So even if the spate of bad economic news is now looking just a little less bad, it's still bad

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Roach

Prison Planet.com » Goldman Launches The SS QE3

explains Goldman Threshold.

"A sharp increase in the Fed’s assessment of recession risk would most likely trigger significant additional monetary easing even if inflation remains well above their target.” What has inspired this change in hear? Simple: nothing less than the “realistic–possibili ty of a significant further deterioration in the economic outlook.”

The second–and probably more realistic–possibilit y is a significant further deterioration in the economic outlook. We estimated a few weeks ago that it would take a 1¼-point increase in the expected unemployment rate or a 1-point drop in the inflation forecast for additional easing to become appropriate. (See Sven Jari Stehn, “Sizing the Fed’s “Zone of Inaction”,” US Economics Analyst, June 17, 2011.) Moreover,it is possible that these rules overstate the hurdle against additional easing.After all, Fed officials are well aware that the US business cycle is highly asymmetric. In the postwar data, every increase in the unemployment rate by at least one-third of one percentage point (on a 3-month moving average basis) has indicated a recession.Therefore, the Fed would likely respond asymmetrically to improving and deteriorating information at this point. A sharp increase in the Fed’s assessment of recession risk would most likely trigger significant additional monetary easing even if inflation remains well above their target.

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The Rev

They play with the numbers in some ridiculous ways, like adjusting GDP for inflation using the lowest inflation rate among major markets; the GDP deflator is usually equal, more or less, to the CPI, which is held down by money sponges like the stock and commodities markets. Makes it look like we have growth, when we really are just showing price increases.

The thing about the UNRATE, however, is that it's a statistic that is valid to +/- 0.3%, so if it's 9.3% one month, then 9.9% the next, the change may, in fact be no more than a sampling anomaly, with the real rate being somewhere in between. If it shows a drop of 0.1%, then the change is meaningless. It's only consistent movement, in one direction or another, over a number of months, which reflects any real change in the economy.



The Rev

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The Rev

Also, in light of yesterday's dump in the markets, I am guessing that the BLS server crash was due to too many people trying to log on at 8:30 Eastern Time to find out the new UNRATE number.

On the bright side, Oil dropped a shitload too, so there's likely to be at least some easing at the pump in the coming months.



The Rev

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kamikazi89

that drop in oil is a good news/bad news scenario though
meaning demand is down (fewer goods being shipped)

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deadhead94

what?

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Roach

meaning Americans aren't the only ones buying oil.

Attached Images

 

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The Rev

What's dropped off isn't demand for oil, per se, but rather, demand for oil to re-sell to people. It's speculator demand that's off. If you want a good indicator for productivity, look at the unemployment rate. When the demand for labor is down, then you know something is out of balance in the price structure, preventing people from being productive.



The Rev

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Roach

the one that doesn't include the 99ers...(ones who've run out of unemployment and now are on welfare) ?

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Roach

That's the whole point of the post.
Odd that the first time ever it crashes, and then reopens with "surprising" numbers, happens when it's numbers are critical to avoid triggers set in place to release more funds.

I'm willing to wager, that if I go state by state, and lookup each ones rate of change, I'd come up with a less than "surprising" rate overall.

But then again, why would I trust anything a .gov site has to offer, when it concerns money/unemployment, given the current political/economic atmosphere.

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Xil

i think the real scourge nowadays is underemployment. sure i can find a job, but the bossman will only give me 15hrs/week and expects me to always be available

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stoneric

That's the wave of the future. Part time jobs with shitty wages. Thank you job creators.