Roach

recession...double dip recession...or depression ?


Household debt almost equals GDP
While the U.S. economic outlook is showing some scant signs of progress, the carnage left over from the financial downturn looks downright depression-like -- and particularly depressing to U.S. households.



A new report from the Federal Reserve (.pdf file) shows that American households are now sitting on $13.2 trillion in debt, and household net worth -- defined as the difference between assets and liabilities -- was down a staggering $2.4 trillion from the previous quarter.



Fed analysts say the decline in net worth was attributable to a decline in the value of financial assets, which fell 5.2% in the third quarter. A fractional drop in U.S. home values (0.6%) contributed as well. Total U.S. home values slid to $16.1 trillion, down from approximately $21 trillion in 2007, just as the recession began to generate some steam.



Monitoring household debt is akin to watching a train wreck in slow motion. The $13.2 trillion beats the $13.1 trillion in total government debt, or the $11.5 trillion in debt racked up by nonfinancial businesses in the U.S., the Fed reports.



In plain language, U.S. households are deeper in debt than U.S. businesses and -- stop the presses -- the much-maligned federal government.



Viewed through another prism, the $13 trillion consumer debt figure almost reaches the total GDP of the U.S., $15 trillion. And losing that $2.4 trillion in Q3 is similar to losing about 16% of total GDP, which would be considered a catastrophic depression in economic circles. Post continues below.

The trend in lost net income most likely started in 2007, when household net worth crested at $66.8 billion. But four years later, that figure has plunged to $57.4 trillion, the Fed reports.



So what's to blame? Americans certainly aren't making more money on the job, analysts say, and the drop in household income has caused families to raid their bank accounts and credit cards to pay for goods and services. But that trend may dissipate in the last quarter of 2011. (This is simply wishfull thinking)(The house is currently voting on a bill that will make life for 10's of millions difficult to impossible)

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, says as much.



"IHS expects a strong fourth quarter rebound in household net worth resulting mostly from a rally in stock prices," he wrote in a Dec. 7 research note. "This should provide some support to consumer spending as employment growth continues to make progress and consumers cheer up ahead of the holidays."



If consumers are really cheering over $2.4 trillion in lost household net worth, then someone better put down the eggnog.



The Great Recession, which in hindsight may have been closer to another Great Depression, has inflicted a world of hurt on U.S. households. And that pain is going to take some time to recover from.



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and maybe, just maybe, it wont.

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The Rev

Prior to the Great Depression, all economic downturns were depressions. They just changed it to make it less frightening after The Big One. It's like everything else, these days. Rather than fix the problem, they just put a more palatable name on it. The 20th Century will be known in future centuries as the Golden Age of the Euphemism.



The Rev

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